Aims/background: A model for end stage liver disease (MELD) score >30 was proposed as an excellent predictor of mortality in patients with non-acetaminophen-induced acute liver failure (ALF). We analyzed the prognostic value of MELD score in our patients with ALF who were prospectively registered in our database since 1990.
Methods: Overall, 106 patients met the criteria of ALF. Excluding seven patients with acetaminophen etiology, 99 patients (42+/-15 years, 40M/59F) were studied.
Results: Causes were cryptogenic (n=38), viral (n=29), drugs (n=20) and miscellaneous (n=12). Of these, 37% (n=37) survived with medical management alone (group I), 16% (n=16) died (group II) and 46% (n=46) underwent liver transplantation (group III). The strongest predictors of poor outcome were advanced encephalopathy, cryptogenic/drug-induced/hepatitis B etiology and a high MELD score. At the time of diagnosis, King's College Hospital criteria and MELD score >30 had similar high negative predictive value (92% and 91%, respectively) and low positive predictive value (52% and 56%, respectively). The predictive values improved only slightly during follow-up. The best cut-off point for MELD score to discriminate between survivors and nonsurvivors was >35, with a sensitivity and specificity of 86% and 75%, respectively.
Conclusions: MELD score, which mostly takes into consideration the degree of liver impairment, has a similar prognostic value as King's College Hospital criteria to predict outcome in adult patients with nonacetaminophen-induced ALF. Overall, all current scores miss accuracy and therefore there is a clear need for factors that can better predict the regeneration of the liver in this setting.