Purpose: Surveillance is a standard management approach for stage I nonseminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT). A randomized trial of two versus five computed tomography (CT) scans was performed to determine whether the number of scans influenced the proportion of patients relapsing with intermediate- or poor-prognosis disease at relapse.
Methods: Patients with clinical stage I NSGCT opting for surveillance were randomly assigned to chest and abdominal CT scans at either 3 and 12 or 3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 months, with all other investigations identical in the two arms. Three of five patients were allocated to the two-scan schedule. Four hundred patients were required.
Results: Two hundred forty-seven patients were allocated to a two-scan and 167 to five-scan policy. With a median follow-up of 40 months, 37 relapses (15%) have occurred in the two-scan arm and 33 (20%) in the five-scan arm. No patients had poor prognosis at relapse, but two (0.8%) of those relapsing in the two-scan arm had intermediate prognosis compared with 1 (0.6%) in the five-scan arm, a difference of 0.2% (90% CI, -1.2% to 1.6%). No deaths have been reported.
Conclusion: This study can rule out with 95% probability an increase in the proportion of patients relapsing with intermediate- or poor-prognosis disease of more than 1.6% if they have two rather than five CT scans as part of their surveillance protocol. CT scans at 3 and 12 months after orchidectomy should be considered a reasonable option in low-risk patients.