Low circulating levels of adiponectin, an adipokine with insulin-sensitizing, antiatherogenic, and anti-inflammatory properties, are found in hypertensive patients. Adiponectin replenishment ameliorated hypertension in adiponectin-deficient mice or obese, hypertensive mice with hypoadiponectinemia, suggesting an etiologic role of adiponectin in hypertension. We aimed to determine, in this 5-year prospective study, whether hypoadiponectinemia could predict the development of hypertension in a nondiabetic Chinese cohort. A total of 577 subjects (249 men and 328 women) were recruited from the population-based Hong Kong Cardiovascular Risk Factor Prevalence Study and prospectively followed up for 5 years. The relationship of serum adiponectin with the development of hypertension (sitting blood pressure >or=140/90 mm Hg) was investigated in a nested case-control study consisting of 70 subjects who had developed hypertension on follow-up and 140 age- and sex-matched control subjects who were normotensive both at baseline and at year 5. At baseline, serum adiponectin level in the lowest sex-specific tertile was more likely to be associated with hypertension (P=0.003 versus the highest tertile, after adjusting for age, body mass index, fasting insulin, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein). At year 5, baseline serum adiponectin was a significant independent predictor of incident hypertension in the nested case-control study (P=0.015; age adjusted), together with mean arterial pressure (P<0.001), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (P=0.018), and body mass index (P=0.004). Normotensive subjects with baseline serum adiponectin levels in the lowest sex-specific tertile had an increased risk of becoming hypertensive (adjusted odds ratio: 2.76; 95% CIs: 1.06 to 7.16; P=0.037 versus highest tertile). Our data suggest that hypoadiponectinaemia may be involved in the pathogenesis of hypertension in humans.