Aim: The aim of this study was to evaluate the preoperative physiological risk profile for postoperative morbidity and mortality after emergency treatment of complicated peptic ulcer disease (PUD).
Methods: Operative notes and hospital files of 261 patients--111 female, 150 male; median age 67 years (range 17-100 years)--undergoing an emergency operation from 1993 to 2005 were analyzed retrospectively. The physiologic subscore of the POSSUM score (POSSUM-phys) was analyzed with regard to predicting postoperative complications. Follow-up was obtained from questionnaires sent to family practitioners or by patient interviews.
Results: The overall complication rate was 44%, and mortality was 24%. Among risk factors studied (e.g., sex, patient's age, duration of symptoms, type of surgery), a high POSSUM-phys score was the strongest predictor for postoperative sepsis, anastomotic/suture dehiscence, postoperative bleeding, and mortality. Cut points for patients at risk could be calculated. Surgical procedures (organ-preserving versus resection) had no influence when matched for POSSUM-phys score. Nevertheless, organ resections were associated with higher scores. Recurrent PUD was a rare event (7.6%).
Conclusion: The preoperative physiologic POSSUM score is a promising instrument for identifying patients at increased risk to develop major postoperative complications after emergency surgery for complicated PUD. Prospective studies are needed to prove its applicability for adjusting treatment to individual patients.