Estimating the impact of vaccination using age-time-dependent incidence rates of hepatitis B

Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Mar;136(3):341-51. doi: 10.1017/S0950268807008692. Epub 2007 May 17.

Abstract

The objective of this study was to model the age-time-dependent incidence of hepatitis B while estimating the impact of vaccination. While stochastic models/time-series have been used before to model hepatitis B cases in the absence of knowledge on the number of susceptibles, this paper proposed using a method that fits into the generalized additive model framework. Generalized additive models with penalized regression splines are used to exploit the underlying continuity of both age and time in a flexible non-parametric way. Based on a unique case notification dataset, we have shown that the implemented immunization programme in Bulgaria resulted in a significant decrease in incidence for infants in their first year of life with 82% (79-84%). Moreover, we have shown that conditional on an assumed baseline susceptibility percentage, a smooth force-of-infection profile can be obtained from which two local maxima were observed at ages 9 and 24 years.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Bulgaria / epidemiology
  • Communicable Disease Control
  • Hepatitis B / epidemiology*
  • Hepatitis B / etiology
  • Hepatitis B / prevention & control*
  • Hepatitis B Vaccines / administration & dosage*
  • Hepatitis B virus / immunology*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Vaccination

Substances

  • Hepatitis B Vaccines