Sample size reestimation by Bayesian prediction

Biom J. 2007 Jun;49(3):365-77. doi: 10.1002/bimj.200310273.

Abstract

We review a Bayesian predictive approach for interim data monitoring and propose its application to interim sample size reestimation for clinical trials. Based on interim data, this approach predicts how the sample size of a clinical trial needs to be adjusted so as to claim a success at the conclusion of the trial with an expected probability. The method is compared with predictive power and conditional power approaches using clinical trial data. Advantages of this approach over the others are discussed.

MeSH terms

  • Bayes Theorem
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / statistics & numerical data*
  • Clinical Trials, Phase II as Topic / statistics & numerical data
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Sample Size