Uncertainty analysis at large scales: limitations and subjectivity of current practices--a water quality case study

Water Sci Technol. 2007;56(6):1-9. doi: 10.2166/wst.2007.580.

Abstract

Uncertainty analysis for large-scale model studies is a challenging activity that requires a different approach to uncertainty analysis at a smaller scale. However, in river basin studies, the practice of uncertainty analysis at a large scale is mostly derived from practice at a small scale. The limitations and inherent subjectivity of some current practices and assumptions are identified, based on the results of a quantitative uncertainty analysis exploring the effects of input data and parameter uncertainty on surface water nutrient concentration. We show that: (i) although the results from small- scale sensitivity analysis are often applied at larger scales, this is not always valid; (ii) the current restriction of the uncertainty assessment to uncertainty types with a strong evidence base gives structurally conservative estimates; (iii) uncertainty due to bias is usually not assessed, but it may easily outweigh the effects of variability; (iv) the uncertainty bandwidth may increase for higher aggregation levels, although the opposite is the standard assumption.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Fresh Water / analysis*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Risk Assessment / statistics & numerical data
  • Rivers
  • Uncertainty
  • Water Pollution / analysis