Soft-x-ray free-electron lasers have enabled materials studies in which structural information is obtained faster than the relevant probe-induced damage mechanisms. We present a continuum model to describe the damage process based on hot-dense plasma theory, which includes a description of the energy deposition in the samples, the subsequent dynamics of the sample, and the detector signal. We compared the model predictions with experimental data and mostly found reasonable agreement. In view of future free-electron-laser performance, the model was also used to predict damage dynamics of samples and optical elements at shorter wavelengths and larger photon fluences than currently available.