Introduction: Many patients presenting with acute gastrointestinal hemorrhage (GIH) are admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) for monitoring. A simple triage protocol based upon validated risk factors could decrease ICU utilization.
Methods: Records of 188 patients admitted with GIH from the emergency department (ED) were reviewed for BLEED criteria (visualized red blood, systolic blood pressure below 100 mm Hg, elevated prothrombin time [PT], erratic mental status, and unstable comorbid disease) and complication within the first 24 hours of admission. Variables associated with early complication were reassessed in 132 patients prospectively enrolled as a validation cohort. A triage model was developed using significant predictors.
Results: We studied 188 patients in the development set and 132 in the validation set. Red blood (relative risk [RR] 4.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.04, 10.07) and elevated PT (RR 3.27, 95% CI 1.53, 7.01) were significantly associated with complication in the development set. In the validation cohort, the combination of red blood or unstable comorbidity had a sensitivity of 0.73, a specificity of 0.55, a positive predictive value of 0.24, and a negative predictive value of 0.91 for complication within 24 hours. In simulation studies, a triage model using these variables could reduce ICU admissions without increasing the number of complications.
Conclusion: Patients presenting to the ED with GIH who have no evidence of ongoing bleeding or unstable comorbidities are at low risk for complication during hospital admission. A triage model based on these variables should be tested prospectively to optimize critical care resource utilization in this common condition.