Refining the criteria for stalled fertility declines: an application to rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, 1990-2005

Stud Fam Plann. 2008 Mar;39(1):39-48. doi: 10.1111/j.1728-4465.2008.00149.x.

Abstract

Stalled fertility declines have been identified in several regions across the developing world, but the current conceptualization of a stalled fertility decline is poorly theorized and does not lend itself to objective measurement. We propose a more rigorous and statistically testable definition of stalled fertility decline that can be applied to time-series data. We then illustrate the utility of our definition through its application to data from rural South Africa for the period 1990-2005 collected from a demographic surveillance site. Application of the approach suggests that fertility decline has indeed stalled in rural KwaZulu-Natal, at about three children per woman. The stall, some 20 percent above the replacement fertility level, does not appear to be associated with a rise in wanted fertility or attenuated access to contraceptive methods. This identification of a stalled fertility decline provides the first evidence of such a stall in southern Africa, the region with the lowest fertility levels in sub-Saharan Africa.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Birth Rate / trends*
  • Demography
  • Female
  • Fertility*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Population Surveillance
  • Pregnancy
  • Rural Population*
  • South Africa / epidemiology