Purpose: This prospective study examined how environmental smoking affects the perception of lifetime smoking prevalence and thereby the likelihood of subsequent regular smoking.
Methods: A longitudinal design (N = 6769) with three waves was used to test our research questions. Exposure to smoking by peers, best friends, and parents were assessed at T1. Perception of lifetime smoking prevalence was calculated at T2. Adolescent smoking was assessed at three waves.
Results: Overestimation of lifetime smoking prevalence was predicted by having a predominantly smoking peer group, having a best friend who smokes, and by having at least one parent who smokes. In consistency with a false consensus effect, smokers were more susceptible to overestimate lifetime smoking prevalence than nonsmokers. Subsequently, while controlling for smoking at T2, overestimating lifetime smoking prevalence was predictive of regular smoking at T3 (in accordance with the conformity hypothesis). Specifically, overestimation of lifetime smoking appeared to mediate the effects of environmental smoking (peers, best friends, and parents) on adolescent smoking. No support was found for a moderation effect of exposure to environmental smoking on the link between misperception of lifetime smoking prevalence and regular smoking.
Conclusions: The study offers a rare and needed theoretical and empirical research examining environmental and individual predictors of regular smoking. Besides direct prevention of exposure to smoking, cognitions that are a product of exposure to smoking need to be addressed in prevention campaigns.