Objective: To predict the frequency of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence (<15 years of age) in Germany for the next 20 years.
Research design and methods: Data on diabetes onset has been collected by means of a registry in the federal German state of Baden-Württemberg (documentation period, 1987-2006; n = 5,108; completeness of data 98.1%).
Results: The current incidence rate (2000-2006) is 19.4 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 18.6-20.2). The annual incidence rate can be expressed as a square of a linear function of the calendar year X [y = (3.05 + 0.0778 x {X-1986})(2); r(2) = 0.90]. The highest increase per year was observed in the age-groups comprising 2- and 3-year-olds (12 and 13% per year, respectively). The incidence rate for the year 2026 is estimated to be 37.9 per 100,000 per year (95% CI 33.3-42.9).
Conclusions: The increase that we found in younger children is characteristic of a left shift toward an earlier age.