The purpose of this prospective study was to verify and compare the strengths of various blood markers and fibrosis models in predicting significant liver fibrosis. One hundred fifty-eight patients with chronic liver disease who underwent liver biopsy were enrolled. The mean age was 41 yr and male patients accounted for 70.2%. The common causes of liver disease were hepatitis B (67.7%) and C (16.5%) and fatty liver (9.5%). Stages of liver fibrosis (F0-4) were assessed according to the Batts and Ludwig scoring system. Significant fibrosis was defined as > or =F2. Sixteen blood markers were measured along with liver biopsy, and estimates of hepatic fibrosis were calculated using various predictive models. Predictive accuracy was evaluated with a receiver-operating characteristics (ROC) curve. Liver biopsy revealed significant fibrosis in 106 cases (67.1%). On multivariate analysis, alpha2-macroglobulin, hyaluronic acid, and haptoglobin were found to be independently related to significant hepatic fibrosis. A new predictive model was constructed based on these variables, and its area under the ROC curve was 0.91 (95% confidence interval, 0.85-0.96). In conclusion, alpha2-macroglobulin, hyaluronic acid, and haptoglobin levels are independent predictors for significant hepatic fibrosis in chronic liver disease.
Keywords: Biological Markers; Chronic Liver Disease; Liver Cirrhosis.