Joint modeling of intercourse behavior and human fecundability using structural equation models

Biostatistics. 2010 Jul;11(3):559-71. doi: 10.1093/biostatistics/kxq006. Epub 2010 Feb 19.

Abstract

Human fecundability is defined as the probability of conception during a menstrual cycle among couples at risk for pregnancy. It is highly relevant for understanding human reproduction and represents a series of highly interrelated and timed processes. The statistical literature has recognized the need to incorporate both biological and behavioral factors (Barrett and Marshall, 1969; Dunson and Stanford, 2005) when modeling conception probabilities, given that intercourse during the fertile window is a necessary but not sufficient criterion for conception. The heterogeneity of behaviors such as the timing and frequency of intercourse in a menstrual cycle needs to be considered when estimating conception. Here we propose a joint model of intercourse behavior and human fecundability through a classic conception probability model and a structural equation model (SEM) to accommodate intercourse during the menstrual cycle. The SEM part of the proposed model allows the dependency between intercourse behaviors on consecutive days in a menstrual cycle to vary across days. Consequently, the proposed model can accommodate not only a broad variety of intercourse patterns and dependency structures but also general covariate effects. Finally, we present a detailed analysis of the New York State Angler Cohort Prospective Pregnancy Study to illustrate the proposed methodology.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Intramural

MeSH terms

  • Coitus / physiology*
  • Female
  • Fertility / physiology*
  • Fertilization / physiology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Markov Chains
  • Models, Biological*
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • New York / epidemiology
  • Pregnancy