The survival benefit of liver transplantation in hepatocellular carcinoma patients

Background: There are no studies evaluating the survival benefit of liver transplantation over alternative therapies for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

Methods: The short- to mid-term survival benefit (study group=135 aggressively treated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma, 52% beyond Milan criteria at pathology) was calculated by comparing the mortality rates of liver transplantation vs alternative therapies patients. A Markov prediction model was then created to estimate the long-term survival benefit of liver transplantation (gain in life expectancy) over alternative therapies. The long-term survival rates in the liver transplantation group were calculated using the Metroticket website calculator (http://89.96.76.14/metroticket/calculator/).

Results: The short- to mid-term analysis indicated that liver transplantation afforded no significant survival benefit in the group of patients with hepatoma as a whole (hazard ratio=1.229, 95% confidence interval 0.544-2.773, p=.6200). The benefit was concentrated in patients with a poor initial response to alternative therapies (hazard ratio=3.137, 95% confidence interval 1.428-6.891, p=.0044). In the long-term analysis, the gain in life expectancy of liver transplantation vs alternative therapies was 6.115 years (base-case analysis) and the main determinants of gain in life expectancy were the 5-year survival prospects after alternative therapies and the patient's age.

Conclusions: The survival benefit of liver transplantation for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma is strongly related to the patient's age and the effectiveness of available alternative therapies.