Polygenic susceptibility to prostate and breast cancer: implications for personalised screening

Br J Cancer. 2011 May 10;104(10):1656-63. doi: 10.1038/bjc.2011.118. Epub 2011 Apr 5.

Abstract

Background: We modelled the efficiency of a personalised approach to screening for prostate and breast cancer based on age and polygenic risk-profile compared with the standard approach based on age alone.

Methods: We compared the number of cases potentially detectable by screening in a population undergoing personalised screening with a population undergoing screening based on age alone. Polygenic disease risk was assumed to have a log-normal relative risk distribution predicted for the currently known prostate or breast cancer susceptibility variants (N=31 and N=18, respectively).

Results: Compared with screening men based on age alone (aged 55-79: 10-year absolute risk ≥2%), personalised screening of men age 45-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 16% fewer men being eligible for screening at a cost of 3% fewer screen-detectable cases, but with added benefit of detecting additional cases in younger men at high risk. Similarly, compared with screening women based on age alone (aged 47-79: 10-year absolute risk ≥2.5%), personalised screening of women age 35-79 at the same risk threshold would result in 24% fewer women being eligible for screening at a cost of 14% fewer screen-detectable cases.

Conclusion: Personalised screening approach could improve the efficiency of screening programmes. This has potential implications on informing public health policy on cancer screening.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Breast Neoplasms / genetics*
  • Female
  • Genetic Predisposition to Disease
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods
  • Middle Aged
  • Precision Medicine / methods
  • Prostatic Neoplasms / genetics*