Improved prediction of all-cause mortality by a combination of serum total testosterone and insulin-like growth factor I in adult men

Steroids. 2012 Jan;77(1-2):52-8. doi: 10.1016/j.steroids.2011.10.005. Epub 2011 Oct 20.

Abstract

Objective: Lower levels of anabolic hormones in older age are well documented. Several studies suggested that low insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) or testosterone levels were related to increased mortality. The aim of the present study was to investigate the combined influence of low IGF-I and low testosterone on all-cause mortality in men.

Methods and results: From two German prospective cohort studies, the DETECT study and SHIP, 3942 men were available for analyses. During 21,838 person-years of follow-up, 8.4% (n=330) of men died. Cox model analyses with age as timescale and adjusted for potential confounders revealed that men with levels below the 10th percentile of at least one hormone [hazard ratio (HR) 1.38 (95% confidence-interval (CI) 1.06-1.78), p=0.02] and two hormones [HR 2.88 (95% CI 1.32-6.29), p<0.01] showed a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to men with non-low hormones. The associations became non-significant by using the 20th percentile as cut-off showing that the specificity increased with lower cut-offs for decreased hormone levels. The inclusion of both IGF-I and total testosterone in a mortality prediction model with common risk factors resulted in a significant integrated discrimination improvement of 0.5% (95% CI 0.3-0.7%, p=0.03).

Conclusions: Our results prove that multiple anabolic deficiencies have a higher impact on mortality than a single anabolic deficiency and suggest that assessment of more than one anabolic hormone as a biomarker improve the prediction of all-cause mortality.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aging / blood*
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Germany / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Insulin-Like Growth Factor I / analysis*
  • Insulin-Like Growth Factor I / deficiency
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality* / ethnology
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Prospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Survival Analysis
  • Testosterone / blood*
  • Testosterone / deficiency

Substances

  • Testosterone
  • Insulin-Like Growth Factor I