Societal correlates of diabetes prevalence: An analysis across 94 countries

Aims: To quantify relationships between societal-level factors and diabetes prevalence and identify potential policy responses.

Methods: Using data from International Diabetes Federation, World Health Organization, World Bank, and Food and Agricultural Organization, we extracted recent estimates for country-level variables: total caloric availability; sugar, animal fat, fruit and vegetable availability; physical inactivity markers (vehicles per capita and value-added from service sector); gross domestic product per capita (GDP); imports; and age-adjusted mortality rate. We used generalized linear models to investigate relationships between these factors and diabetes prevalence.

Results: Median global diabetes prevalence was 6.4% in 2010. Every additional percentage point of calories from sugar/sweeteners and from animal fats were associated with 5% (OR: 1.05, 95% CI 1.02-1.07) and 3% (OR: 1.03, 95% CI 0.99-1.06) higher diabetes prevalence, respectively, while each additional unit in fruit and vegetable availability was associated with 3% lower diabetes prevalence (OR: 0.97, 95% CI 0.93-0.99). One percent higher GDP from the service industry was associated with a 1% higher diabetes prevalence (OR: 1.01, 95% CI 0.99-1.02).

Conclusion: Macro-level societal factors are associated with diabetes prevalence. Investigating how these factors affect individual-level diabetes risk may offer further insight into policy-level interventions.