Estimation of parasitic infection dynamics when detectability is imperfect

Stat Med. 1990 Oct;9(10):1211-9. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780091010.

Abstract

The simultaneous estimation of infection rate, cure rate and detectability of parasitic infections is considered. A new method for this estimation based on a simple statistical model assuming constant transition rates between parasite states is proposed. Repeated observations on the infection status of the same individuals is required for this method. A maximum likelihood approach is used for parameter estimation and the calculation of standard errors of the estimates. The method is illustrated by a longitudinal study of the presence of Giardia lamblia infection in Kenyan children.

MeSH terms

  • Feces / parasitology
  • Giardiasis / epidemiology*
  • Giardiasis / parasitology
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Kenya / epidemiology
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Markov Chains
  • Mathematical Computing
  • Models, Statistical*
  • Population Dynamics
  • Prevalence
  • Software