Does an electrocardiogram add predictive value to the rose angina questionnaire for future coronary heart disease? 10-year follow-up in a Middle East population

J Epidemiol Community Health. 2012 Dec;66(12):1104-9. doi: 10.1136/jech-2011-200242. Epub 2012 Apr 27.

Abstract

Background: To evaluate the power of abnormal resting ECG versus Rose Questionnaire angina and its additive value in predicting 10-year coronary heart disease (CHD) risk in an Iranian urban population with high prevalence of CHD.

Methods: There were 5101 subjects ≥30 years (2900 women), free of CHD at baseline; they were categorised in to four groups according to their Rose Angina and ECG status for ischaemia as Rose-/ECG-, Rose+/ECG-, Rose-/ECG+ and Rose+/ECG+. HR of CHD was estimated using Cox regression analysis, given Rose-/ECG- as the reference. The authors used Akaike information criterion, C-index and integrated discrimination improvement indices to evaluate the prognostic value of ECG when would be added to Rose Questionnaire.

Results: During follow-up, 387 CHD events (169 women) were observed. Multivariate analysis showed a HR of 2.59 (95% CI 1.71 to 3.91) and 2.26 (1.48 to 3.44) for Rose+/ECG- group in men and women, respectively. These figures for Rose-/ECG+ were 1.36 (0.90 to 2.05) in men and 2.09 (1.40 to 3.12) in women. There was no any interaction between Rose Questionnaire and gender to predict incident CHD, in age-adjusted analysis. Akaike information criterion, C-index and relative integrated discrimination improvement did not show any difference between models including Rose alone and Rose plus ECG to predict CHD events especially in men.

Conclusions: Rose Questionnaire as a simple screening tool is equally important to predict incident CHD in both genders. Adding abnormal ECG to angina did not culminate in higher risk for future CHD events.

Publication types

  • Evaluation Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Angina Pectoris / diagnosis*
  • Angina Pectoris / epidemiology
  • Angina Pectoris / physiopathology
  • Coronary Disease / cerebrospinal fluid*
  • Coronary Disease / mortality*
  • Coronary Disease / physiopathology
  • Electrocardiography / methods*
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Forecasting
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Iran / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Mass Screening / methods
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Population Surveillance
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Regression Analysis
  • Risk Factors
  • Socioeconomic Factors
  • Surveys and Questionnaires*
  • Urban Population
  • Young Adult