Risk factors for farm-level African swine fever infection in major pig-producing areas in Nigeria, 1997-2011

African swine fever (ASF) is an economically devastating disease for the pig industry, especially in Africa. Identifying what supports infection on pig farms in this region remains the key component in developing a risk-based approach to understanding the epidemiology of ASF and controlling the disease. Nigeria was used for this matched case-control study, because there is perpetual infection in some areas, while contiguous areas are intermittently infected. Risk factors and biosecurity practices in pig farms were evaluated in association with ASF infection. Subsets of farms located in high-density pig population areas and high-risk areas for ASF infection were randomly selected for analysis. Most plausible risk factor variables from the univariable analysis included in the multivariable analysis include: owner of farm had regular contact with infected farms and other farmers, untested pigs were routinely purchased into the farm in the course of outbreaks, there was an infected neighbourhood, other livestock were kept alongside pigs, there was a presence of an abattoir/slaughter slab in pig communities, wild birds had free access to pig pens, tools and implements were routinely shared by pig farmers, there was free access to feed stores by rats, and feed was purchased from a commercial source. Only the presence of an abattoir in a pig farming community (OR=8.20; CI(95%)=2.73, 24.63; P<0.001) and the presence of an infected pig farm in the neighbourhood (OR=3.26; CI(95%)=1.20, 8.83; P=0.02) were significant. There was a marginally significant negative association (protective) between risk of ASF infection and sharing farm tools and equipment (OR=0.35; CI(95%)=0.12, 1.01; P=0.05). Of the 28 biosecurity measures evaluated, food and water control (OR=0.14; CI(95%)=0.04, 0.46; P<0.001), separation/isolation of sick pigs (OR=0.14; CI(95%)=0.04, 0.53; P=0.004) and washing and disinfection of farm equipment and tools (OR=0.27; CI(95%)=0.10, 0.78; P=0.02) were negatively associated (protective) with ASF infection. Consultation and visits by veterinarian/paraveterinarians when animals were sick (OR=8.11; CI(95%)=2.13, 30.90; P=0.002), and pest and rodent control were positively associated with ASF infection of Nigerian farms (OR=4.94; CI(95%)=1.84, 13.29; P=0.002). The presentation of sick and unthrifty pigs for slaughter at abattoirs, farmers' inadvertent role, an infected neighbourhood, a pig to pig contact, rodents and wild birds may contribute to infections of farms, whereas washing, disinfection of tools, food and water control, and separation of sick pigs reduces the likelihood of infections. Underlying reasons for these observations and strategies for control are discussed.