Background: Malignant ascites is a manifestation of end-stage events in a variety of cancers. There is significant lack of possible survival predictors in patients with malignancy-related ascites. Since the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD)-Na score has been shown to be a feasible and independent prognostic predictor for both short- and long-term outcome in HCC patients, we decided to test its prognostic role in other cancer types with ascites.
Material and methods: This is a retrospective study. The outpatient oncology clinic's records were screened for the period between 2004 and 2011. Eighty-two pancreatic and gastric cancer patients were enrolled into the study.
Results: The median age of patients was 59 (±12). Fifty-nine patients had gastric cancer and 23 had pancreatic cancer. Overall survival (OS) was 16.8 (IR, 1-98) months in gastric cancer and 16.3 (IR, 0.5-81) months in pancreatic cancer. There was no statistically significant difference between OS of gastric and pancreatic cancer. Progression-free survival (PFS) was statistically significantly longer in gastric cancer than pancreatic cancer with 16.5 (IR, 0.5-90) vs 6.5 (IR, 0.4-34) months (P = 0.04). Further analysis of data included stepwise multiple regression analysis with the dependent variable "overall survival." The model had two independent predictors and an R(2) of 82 % and a predicted R(2) of 81 %. Predictors for time to remission were PFS and MELD-Na. The regression equation for the model was: Overall survival =17.4- 0.522 MELD-Na + 0.902 PFS CONCLUSION: In this study we showed that progression-free survival and MELD-Na score are significantly related with overall survival. MELD-Na score can be one of the predictors of the survival and PFS in pancreatic and gastric cancer patients with ascites.