Background: After 40 years of continuous decline, smoking rates in the United States have stabilized signaling a challenge for tobacco control. Renewed decline may be guided by public opinion where support for tobacco control is strong. This study sought the public's preferences about tobacco control strategies.
Methods: This contingent valuation study investigated whether the public's valuations of 2 tobacco control policies outweighed their implementation costs. In a hypothetical referendum, a representative sample of North Carolinians aged 45-64 years (n = 644) was asked to indicate whether they would prefer a policy that would halve the youth smoking rate or one that would reduce smoking-related deaths by 10%, and to indicate how much additional tax they would be willing to pay to implement their preferred policy. This willingness-to-pay value formed the perceived "benefit" component in a cost-benefit analysis. Costs to halve youth smoking were calculated from evidence about the resources required to increase the state tobacco excise tax. Costs to reduce tobacco-related deaths were based on evidence about the resources required for a counseling quitline offering free nicotine replacement therapy.
Results: The majority (85%) of respondents voted to halve the youth smoking rate. The mean maximum amount per person that voters were willing to pay in 1 year to do that was $14.90 (95% CI, $10.10-$19.60), and the maximum amount per person they were willing to pay in 1 year to reduce smoking-related deaths was $13.70 (95% CI, $2.10-$25.40). When aggregated to the North Carolina population aged 45-64 years (N = 2,400,144), the perceived benefit of halving youth smoking was $35.8 million. Implementation of a program to achieve this outcome would cost $109.8 million. Aggregating to the same population, the perceived benefit of a 10% reduction in tobacco-related deaths was $32.9 million, an amount that exceeds the $12.8 million estimated cost of achieving the outcome.
Conclusion: A counseling quitline with free nicotine replacement therapy would achieve a positive net benefit.