Modeled subalpine plant community response to climate change and atmospheric nitrogen deposition in Rocky Mountain National Park, USA

Environ Pollut. 2014 Apr:187:55-64. doi: 10.1016/j.envpol.2013.12.021. Epub 2014 Jan 18.

Abstract

To evaluate potential long-term effects of climate change and atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on subalpine ecosystems, the coupled biogeochemical and vegetation community competition model ForSAFE-Veg was applied to a site at the Loch Vale watershed of Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado. Changes in climate and N deposition since 1900 resulted in pronounced changes in simulated plant species cover as compared with ambient and estimated future community composition. The estimated critical load (CL) of N deposition to protect against an average future (2010-2100) change in biodiversity of 10% was between 1.9 and 3.5 kg N ha(-1) yr(-1). Results suggest that the CL has been exceeded and vegetation at the study site has already undergone a change of more than 10% as a result of N deposition. Future increases in air temperature are forecast to cause further changes in plant community composition, exacerbating changes in response to N deposition alone.

Keywords: Biodiversity; Climate; Critical load; Nitrogen; Plant; Subalpine.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollutants / analysis*
  • Atmosphere / chemistry*
  • Climate Change*
  • Climate*
  • Colorado
  • Ecosystem
  • Environmental Monitoring
  • Models, Biological*
  • Nitrogen / analysis*
  • Plant Development / drug effects
  • Plants / metabolism

Substances

  • Air Pollutants
  • Nitrogen