Finding the best thresholds of FEV1 and dyspnea to predict 5-year survival in COPD patients: the COCOMICS study

PLoS One. 2014 Feb 27;9(2):e89866. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0089866. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Background: FEV1 is universally used as a measure of severity in COPD. Current thresholds are based on expert opinion and not on evidence.

Objectives: We aimed to identify the best FEV1 (% predicted) and dyspnea (mMRC) thresholds to predict 5-yr survival in COPD patients.

Design and methods: We conducted a patient-based pooled analysis of eleven COPD Spanish cohorts (COCOMICS). Survival analysis, ROC curves, and C-statistics were used to identify and compare the best FEV1 (%) and mMRC scale thresholds that predict 5-yr survival.

Results: A total of 3,633 patients (93% men), totaling 15,878 person-yrs. were included, with a mean age 66.4 ± 9.7, and predicted FEV1 of 53.8% (± 19.4%). Overall 975 (28.1%) patients died at 5 years. The best thresholds that spirometrically split the COPD population were: mild ≥ 70%, moderate 56-69%, severe 36-55%, and very severe ≤ 35%. Survival at 5 years was 0.89 for patients with FEV1 ≥ 70 vs. 0.46 in patients with FEV1 ≤ 35% (H.R: 6; 95% C.I.: 4.69-7.74). The new classification predicts mortality significantly better than dyspnea (mMRC) or FEV1 GOLD and BODE cutoffs (all p<0.001). Prognostic reliability is maintained at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years. In younger patients, survival was similar for FEV1 (%) values between 70% and 100%, whereas in the elderly the relationship between FEV1 (%) and mortality was inversely linear.

Conclusions: The best thresholds for 5-yr survival were obtained stratifying FEV1 (%) by ≥ 70%, 56-69%, 36-55%, and ≤ 35%. These cutoffs significantly better predict mortality than mMRC or FEV1 (%) GOLD and BODE cutoffs.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Area Under Curve
  • Cohort Studies
  • Dyspnea / diagnosis*
  • Female
  • Forced Expiratory Volume*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / epidemiology*
  • Pulmonary Disease, Chronic Obstructive / physiopathology*
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Spain / epidemiology
  • Spirometry
  • Survival Analysis

Grants and funding

The COCOMICS study was financed in part with a grant of the Spanish Society of Pneumology and Thoracic surgery coded with the number 057/12.SEPAR 2013. PMC was supported by research grant MTM2011-23204 from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (FEDER support included). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.