Meta-analysis of the effect of postoperative in-hospital morbidity on long-term patient survival

Background: Major surgery is associated with high rates of postoperative complications, many of which are deemed preventable. It has been suggested that these complications not only present a risk to patients in the short term, but may also reduce long-term survival. The aim of this review was to examine the effects of postoperative complications on long-term survival.

Methods: MEDLINE, Web of Science and reference lists of relevant articles were searched up to July 2013. Studies assessing only procedure-specific, or technical failure-related, complications were excluded, as were studies of poor methodological quality. Meta-analysis was performed using a random-effects model. Risk of bias was assessed using funnel plots.

Results: Eighteen eligible studies were included, comprising results for 134 785 patients with an overall complication rate of 22·6 (range 10·6-69) per cent. The studies included operations for both benign and malignant disease. Median follow-up was 43 (range 28-96) months. Meta-analysis demonstrated reduced overall survival after any postoperative complication for ten studies with eligible data (20 755 patients), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1·28 (95 per cent confidence interval 1·21 to 1·34). Similar results were found for overall survival following infectious complications: HR 1·92 (1·50 to 2·35). In analyses of disease-free survival the HR was 1·26 (1·10 to 1·42) for all postoperative complications and 1·55 (1·12 to 1·99) for infectious complications. Inclusion of poor-quality studies in a sensitivity analysis had no effect on the results.

Conclusion: Postoperative complications have a negative effect on long-term survival. This relationship appears to be stronger for infectious complications.