The Non-uniqueness Property of the Intrinsic Estimator in APC Models

Demography. 2015 Feb;52(1):315-27. doi: 10.1007/s13524-014-0360-3.

Abstract

This article explores an important property of the intrinsic estimator that has received no attention in literature: the age, period, and cohort estimates of the intrinsic estimator are not unique but vary with the parameterization and reference categories chosen for these variables. We give a formal proof of the non-uniqueness property for effect coding and dummy variable coding. Using data on female mortality in the United States over the years 1960-1999, we show that the variation in the results obtained for different parameterizations and reference categories is substantial and leads to contradictory conclusions. We conclude that the non-uniqueness property is a new argument for not routinely applying the intrinsic estimator.

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Age Factors
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Cohort Studies*
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Middle Aged
  • Mortality
  • Time Factors
  • United States
  • Young Adult