Untreated Gleason Grade Progression on Serial Biopsies during Prostate Cancer Active Surveillance: Clinical Course and Pathological Outcomes

Purpose: We describe the outcomes of patients with low risk localized prostate cancer who were upgraded on a surveillance biopsy while on active surveillance and evaluated whether delayed treatment was associated with adverse outcome.

Materials and methods: We included men in the study with lower risk disease managed initially with active surveillance and upgraded to Gleason score 3+4 or greater. Patient demographics and disease characteristics were compared. Kaplan-Meier curve was used to estimate the treatment-free probability stratified by initial upgrade (3+4 vs 4+3 or greater), Cox regression analysis was used to examine factors associated with treatment and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the factors associated with adverse outcome at surgery.

Results: The final cohort comprised 219 men, with 150 (68%) upgraded to 3+4 and 69 (32%) to 4+3 or greater. Median time to upgrade was 23 months (IQR 11-49). A total of 163 men (74%) sought treatment, the majority (69%) with radical prostatectomy. The treatment-free survival rate at 5 years was 22% for 3+4 and 10% for 4+3 or greater upgrade. Upgrade to 4+3 or greater, higher prostate specific antigen density at diagnosis and shorter time to initial upgrade were associated with treatment. At surgical pathology 34% of cancers were downgraded while 6% were upgraded. Cancer volume at initial upgrade was associated with adverse pathological outcome at surgery (OR 3.33, 95% CI 1.19-9.29, p=0.02).

Conclusions: After Gleason score upgrade most patients elected treatment with radical prostatectomy. Among men who deferred definitive intervention, few experienced additional upgrading. At radical prostatectomy only 6% of cases were upgraded further and only tumor volume at initial upgrade was significantly associated with adverse pathological outcome.