Serum Sodium: A Reliable and Validated Predictor for Mortality in Enteric Fistula Patients Complicated with Sepsis

J Invest Surg. 2015 Jun;28(3):131-9. doi: 10.3109/08941939.2014.957880. Epub 2015 Feb 3.

Abstract

Purpose: The aim was to evaluate the predictive value of serial serum sodium determination for mortality in enteric fistula (EF) patients complicated with sepsis.

Methods: Between January 1(st), 2012 to January 13(th), 2013, we performed a prospective observational study enrolling 162 patients. Patients were divided into survivors group (n = 119) and nonsurvivors group (n = 43) according to 28-day outcomes. Laboratory variables on day 0, day 3, and day 7 after admission were recorded. [Na(+)]0 was defined as serum [Na(+)] value on admission. [Na(+)]3 was defined as serum [Na(+)] value on day 3. Δ [Na(+)]3 was defined as changes from [Na(+)]3 to [Na(+)]0. The definition applied to other parameters. The results were validated in an independent cohort of 116 patients.

Results: ROC analysis showed that [Na(+)]7>147.5 mmol/L and ΔNa7>5.2 mmol/L were reliable predictors ([Na(+)]7: 81.2% sensitivity, 87.7% specificity, (area under the curve(AUC):0.872, p < .001; Δ[Na(+)]7: 81.3% sensitivity, 83.6% specificity, AUC:0.836, p < .001) for mortality. The combination form ([Na(+)]7>147.5 mmol/L+ Δ[Na]7>5.2 mmol/L+ ΔPCT7<5.3 ng/ml) had greatest predictive value (AUC:0.899, p < .001). Their predictive values were confirmed in the validation cohort.

Conclusions: Serum sodium was a reliable predictor for mortality in abdominal septic patients, which should be paid close attention in the critical care.

Keywords: abdominal sepsis; biomarker; enteric fistula; hypernatremia; predictor.

Publication types

  • Observational Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • China / epidemiology
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Intestinal Fistula / blood
  • Intestinal Fistula / complications*
  • Intestinal Fistula / mortality*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Prospective Studies
  • Sepsis / blood
  • Sepsis / etiology*
  • Sepsis / mortality
  • Sodium / blood*

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • Sodium