Fifty-nine HIV-1 antibody positive and 58 antibody negative hemophiliacs were evaluated over a 2 year study period to gain insight into the natural history and prognosis of HIV-1 disease in members of this risk group. Mean CD4 (Leu 3+) cell counts calculated at 6 month intervals decreased gradually in seropositive patients (from 403 to 311/microliters) whereas CD8 (Leu 2+) counts remained stable but above the normal range. CD4 cell counts correlated closely with advancing CDC clinical stage; CD8 numbers showed no such association, but were markedly lower in the six patients with overt AIDS. Serum P24 antigenemia was associated with low CD4 cell counts and with advanced clinical stage (58% of antigenemic and 14% of non-antigenemic seropositive patients were in stage IV). In addition to CD4 cell counts, significant reductions in Leu 11+ natural killer cell (NK) subsets and in Leu 3 + 8 - cells occurred in seropositive patients over the study period; Leu 2 + DR + cells increased significantly. When expressed as a percentage of lymphocytes, the reduction in Leu 19 + NK cells was also significant, as were the increases in Leu 4 + DR + cells and Leu 12 + 8 + B cells. In summary, declining CD4 cell numbers and percentages are valuable markers of progressive HIV-1 disease in hemophiliacs, but may not always accurately reflect the degree of disease activity. Progressive changes in additional variables such as serum P24 antigen, and numbers and percentages of NK cell subsets and (as AIDS supervenes) CD8 cell numbers, may allow more precise monitoring of HIV-1 disease. This will, in turn, facilitate the design of optimal individualized strategies for therapeutic intervention.