Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy

Tetsuro Takayama; Susumu Okamoto; Tadakazu Hisamatsu; Makoto Naganuma; Katsuyoshi Matsuoka; Shinta Mizuno; Rieko Bessho; Toshifumi Hibi; Takanori Kanai

doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0131197

Computer-Aided Prediction of Long-Term Prognosis of Patients with Ulcerative Colitis after Cytoapheresis Therapy

PLoS One. 2015 Jun 25;10(6):e0131197. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0131197. eCollection 2015.

Authors

Tetsuro Takayama¹, Susumu Okamoto², Tadakazu Hisamatsu³, Makoto Naganuma⁴, Katsuyoshi Matsuoka⁵, Shinta Mizuno⁶, Rieko Bessho³, Toshifumi Hibi⁷, Takanori Kanai³

Affiliations

¹ Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Predictive Medicine Institute, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Tokai University School of Medicine, Isehara-shi, Kanagawa, Japan; Wata Clinic, Katsushika-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
² Department of General Medicine, Kyorin University School of Medicine, Mitaka-shi, Tokyo, Japan.
³ Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
⁴ Center for Diagnostic and Therapeutic Endoscopy, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
⁵ Department of Advanced Therapeutics for Gastrointestinal Diseases, Graduate School, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Bunkyo-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
⁶ Division of Gastroenterology and Hepatology, Department of Internal Medicine, Keio University School of Medicine, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Internal Medicine, Saiseikai Central Hospital, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan.
⁷ Center for Advanced IBD Research and Treatment, Kitasato Institute Hospital, Kitasato University,Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan.

Abstract

Cytoapheresis (CAP) therapy is widely used in ulcerative colitis (UC) patients with moderate to severe activity in Japan. The aim of this study is to predict the need of operation after CAP therapy of UC patients on an individual level using an artificial neural network system (ANN). Ninety UC patients with moderate to severe activity were treated with CAP. Data on the patients' demographics, medication, clinical activity index (CAI) and efficacy of CAP were collected. Clinical data were divided into training data group and validation data group and analyzed using ANN to predict individual outcomes. The sensitivity and specificity of predictive expression by ANN were 0.96 and 0.97, respectively. Events of admission, operation, and use of immunomodulator, and efficacy of CAP were significantly correlated to the outcome. Requirement of operation after CAP therapy was successfully predicted by using ANN. This newly established ANN strategy would be used as powerful support of physicians in the clinical practice.

Publication types

Evaluation Study
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

Adolescent
Adult
Aged
Colitis, Ulcerative / diagnosis*
Colitis, Ulcerative / therapy*
Cytapheresis*
Decision Making, Computer-Assisted*
Female
Humans
Male
Middle Aged
Neural Networks, Computer
Predictive Value of Tests
Prognosis
Sensitivity and Specificity
Severity of Illness Index
Young Adult

Grants and funding

This work was supported all by a KORP project grant from Otsuka Pharmaceutical, Inc. (to TK). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.