Why the C-statistic is not informative to evaluate early warning scores and what metrics to use

Crit Care. 2015 Aug 13;19(1):285. doi: 10.1186/s13054-015-0999-1.

Abstract

Metrics typically used to report the performance of an early warning score (EWS), such as the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve or C-statistic, are not useful for pre-implementation analyses. Because physiological deterioration has an extremely low prevalence of 0.02 per patient-day, these metrics can be misleading. We discuss the statistical reasoning behind this statement and present a novel alternative metric more adequate to operationalize an EWS. We suggest that pre-implementation evaluation of EWSs should include at least two metrics: sensitivity; and either the positive predictive value, number needed to evaluate, or estimated rate of alerts. We also argue the importance of reporting each individual cutoff value.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Critical Care / methods*
  • Critical Care / standards
  • Decision Support Techniques*
  • Humans
  • ROC Curve
  • Statistics as Topic