The effects of ambient temperature on outpatient visits for varicella and herpes zoster in Shanghai, China: a time-series study

J Am Acad Dermatol. 2015 Oct;73(4):660-5. doi: 10.1016/j.jaad.2015.07.015. Epub 2015 Aug 12.

Abstract

Background: The seasonality of varicella and herpes zoster has been widely observed, but there is limited evidence on their associations with ambient temperature.

Objective: The associations between ambient temperature and outpatient visits for varicella and herpes zoster were examined.

Methods: We collected daily outpatient visit data for varicella (N = 3520) and herpes zoster (N = 6614) from a major hospital in Shanghai, China, from 2008 to 2010. We adopted the generalized additive model in time-series analysis to investigate the short-term associations between temperature and outpatient visits for varicella and herpes zoster after controlling for seasonal trends, day of the week, and humidity.

Results: A 1°C increase in daily mean temperature was associated with a 1.33% (95% confidence interval 0.93%-1.74%) decrease in outpatient visits for varicella whereas it was associated with a 2.18% (95% confidence interval 1.90%-2.46%) increase in outpatient visits for herpes zoster.

Limitations: Only 1 hospital was included and we did not control for individual-level risk factors.

Conclusion: Our results demonstrated that temperature variation might be an important risk factor for varicella and herpes zoster in China.

Keywords: herpes zoster; outpatient visits; risk factor; temperature; varicella.

Publication types

  • Comparative Study
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Ambulatory Care / statistics & numerical data
  • Chickenpox / diagnosis
  • Chickenpox / epidemiology*
  • China / epidemiology
  • Confidence Intervals
  • Databases, Factual
  • Female
  • Herpes Zoster / diagnosis
  • Herpes Zoster / epidemiology*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Outpatients / statistics & numerical data
  • Prevalence
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Assessment
  • Seasons*
  • Temperature*