Scaling law characterizing the dynamics of the transition of HIV-1 to error catastrophe

Phys Biol. 2015 Sep 2;12(5):054001. doi: 10.1088/1478-3975/12/5/054001.

Abstract

Increasing the mutation rate, μ of viruses above a threshold, μ(c) has been predicted to trigger a catastrophic loss of viral genetic information and is being explored as a novel intervention strategy. Here, we examine the dynamics of this transition using stochastic simulations mimicking within-host HIV-1 evolution. We find a scaling law governing the characteristic time of the transition: τ ≈ 0.6/(μ - μ(c)). The law is robust to variations in underlying evolutionary forces and presents guidelines for treatment of HIV-1 infection with mutagens. We estimate that many years of treatment would be required before HIV-1 can suffer an error catastrophe.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Computer Simulation
  • Evolution, Molecular
  • HIV Infections / genetics
  • HIV Infections / therapy
  • HIV Infections / virology*
  • HIV-1 / drug effects
  • HIV-1 / genetics*
  • HIV-1 / physiology
  • Humans
  • Models, Genetic
  • Mutagens / pharmacology
  • Mutation Rate*
  • Stochastic Processes
  • Virus Replication / drug effects

Substances

  • Mutagens