Background: Due to the heterogeneity of cystic fibrosis (CF), the longer survival observed in cohorts of adult subjects, and inter-population variations, there is a clear need to seek further information about clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in different cohorts of subjects with CF. Our objectives were to evaluate clinical outcomes and prognostic factors in a cohort of adult subjects with CF after a 7-y follow-up period and investigate longitudinal changes in clinical scores, spirometry, 6-min walk test performance, and pulmonary artery systolic pressure as assessed by Doppler echocardiography.
Methods: A cohort of clinically stable subjects (≥16 y old) who were enrolled in an adult CF program in 2004-2005 underwent clinical evaluation. Outcome was classified as good (survival) or poor (survival with lung transplantation or death). In 2011-2012, survivors were re-examined.
Results: Of 40 subjects with CF evaluated in 2004-2005, 32 (80%) survived, 2 (5%) survived with lung transplantation, and 6 (15%) died. Logistic regression analysis showed that a low percent-of-predicted FEV1 was associated with poor outcome. An FEV1 cut-off value of ≤30% and pulmonary artery systolic pressure of ≥42 mm Hg predicted poor outcome with high sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Deterioration was observed in clinical scores (P = .03), FVC (P = .02), FEV1 (P < .001), distance walked in the 6-min walk test (P = .002), baseline SpO2 (P < .001), and final SpO2 (P < .001).
Conclusions: After 7 y of follow-up, 20% of subjects with CF had a poor outcome. Pulmonary artery systolic pressure of ≥42 mm Hg and FEV1 of ≤30% were the most significant prognostic predictors of poor outcome. Clinical and functional deterioration was observed in survivors.
Keywords: cohort studies; cystic fibrosis; lung function; prognosis; pulmonary hypertension.
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