A cost-utility analysis for catheter ablation of atrial fibrillation in combination with warfarin and dabigatran based on the CHADS₂ score in Japan

Background: We aimed to clarify the cost-effectiveness of an expensive combination therapy for atrial fibrillation (AF) using both catheter ablation and dabigatran compared with warfarin at each CHADS₂ score for patients in Japan.

Methods: A Markov model was constructed to analyze costs and quality-adjusted life years associated with AF therapeutic options with a time horizon of 10 years. The target population was 60-year-old patients with paroxysmal AF. The indication for anticoagulation was determined according to the Japanese guideline. Anticoagulation-related data were derived from the RE-LY study and the AF recurrence rate was set at 2.7% per month during the first 12 months and at 0.40% per month afterwards. Stroke risk was determined according to AF recurrence, anticoagulation, and CHADS₂ score. The risks for stroke recurrence and stroke death were also considered. Costs were calculated from the healthcare payer's perspective, and only direct medical costs were included.

Results: Warfarin was the most preferred option for patients with a CHADS₂ score of 0 from a health economics aspect. Ablation under warfarin was preferred for a CHADS₂ score of 1-3, while ablation under dabigatran was preferred for a CHADS₂ score ≥4. The quality of life score for AF had the largest impact on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios in the analysis between the anticoagulation arm and the anticoagulation+ablation arm for a CHADS₂ score of 2. Within the range of the Japanese willingness-to-pay threshold (¥5,000,000), the ablation+warfarin arm became the best option with its probability of 81.7% for a CHADS₂ score of 2; the dabigatran+ablation arm was the most preferred option with its probability of 56.1% for a CHADS₂ score of 4.

Conclusions: Ablation under dabigatran therapy is an expensive therapeutic option, but it might benefit patients with a low quality of life and a high CHADS₂ score.