Fitting the Incidence Data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, Based on Dengue Transmission Modellings Considering Time-Dependent Entomological Parameters

PLoS One. 2016 Mar 24;11(3):e0152186. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0152186. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

Four time-dependent dengue transmission models are considered in order to fit the incidence data from the City of Campinas, Brazil, recorded from October 1st 1995 to September 30th 2012. The entomological parameters are allowed to depend on temperature and precipitation, while the carrying capacity and the hatching of eggs depend only on precipitation. The whole period of incidence of dengue is split into four periods, due to the fact that the model is formulated considering the circulation of only one serotype. Dengue transmission parameters from human to mosquito and mosquito to human are fitted for each one of the periods. The time varying partial and overall effective reproduction numbers are obtained to explain the incidence of dengue provided by the models.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Aedes / virology
  • Animals
  • Brazil / epidemiology
  • Climate
  • Dengue / transmission*
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Insect Vectors
  • Models, Theoretical*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo - FAPESP (2009/15098-0). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.