Although only less than one-third of smokers develop COPD, early marker(s) of COPD development are lacking. The aim of this research was to assess the ability of an average equilibrium exhaled breath temperature (EBT) in identifying susceptibility to cigarette smoke so as to predict COPD development in smokers at risk. The study was a part of a multicenter prospective cohort study in current smokers (N = 140, both sexes, 40-65 years, ≥20 pack-years) with no prior diagnosis of COPD. Diagnostic workup includes history, physical, quality of life, hematology and highly sensitive CRP, EBT before and after smoking a cigarette, lung function with bronchodilator test, and 6-minute walk test. Patients without a diagnosis of COPD and in GOLD 1 stage at initial assessment were reassessed after 2 years. COPD was additionally diagnosed based on lower level of normal (LLN) lung function criteria. Utility of EBT for disease progression was analyzed using receiver operator curve (ROC) and logistic regression analyses. Change in EBT after smoking a cigarette at initial visit (ΔEBT) was significantly predictive for disease progression (newly diagnosed COPD; newly diagnosed COPD + severity progression) after 2 years (p < 0.05 for both). ΔEBT had an AUC of 0.859 (p = 0.011) with sensitivity of 66.7% and specificity of 98.1% for newly diagnosed COPD using LLN criteria. We conclude that EBT shows potential for predicting the future development of COPD in current smokers. This was best seen using LLN to diagnose COPD, adding further evidence to question the use of GOLD criteria for diagnosing COPD.
Keywords: Biological markers; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD); cigarette smoking; cohort study; disease susceptibility; exhaled breath temperature; trial registration.