Objective: To investigate whether sphericity volume index (SVI), an indicator of left ventricular (LV) remodelling, predicts incident cardiovascular events (coronary heart disease, CHD; all cardiovascular disease, CVD; heart failure, HF; atrial fibrillation, AF) over 10 years of follow-up in a multiethnic population (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis).
Methods: 5004 participants free of known CVD had magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in 2000-2002. Cine images were analysed to compute, [Formula: see text] equivalent to LV volume/volume of sphere with length of LV as the diameter. The highest (greatest sphericity) and lowest (lowest sphericity) quintiles of SVI were compared against the reference group (2-4 quintiles combined). Risk-factor adjusted hazard's ratio (HR) from Cox regression assessed the predictive performance of SVI at end-diastole (ED) and end-systole (ES) to predict incident outcomes over 10 years in retrospective interpretation of prospective data.
Results: At baseline, participants were aged 61±10 years; 52% men and 39%/13%/26%/22% Cauc/Chinese/Afr-Amer/Hispanic. Low sphericity was associated with higher Framingham CVD risk, greater coronary calcium score and higher N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP); while increased sphericity was associated with higher NT-proBNP and lower ejection fraction. Low sphericity predicted incident CHD (HR: 1.48, 1.55-2.59 at ED) and CVD (HR: 1.82, 1.47-2.27 at ED). However, both low (HR: 1.81, 1.20-2.73 at ES) and high (HR: 2.21, 1.41-3.46 at ES) sphericity predicted incident HF. High sphericity also predicted AF.
Conclusions: In a multiethnic population free of CVD at baseline, lowest sphericity was a predictor of incident CHD, CVD and HF over a 10-year follow-up period. Extreme sphericity was a strong predictor of incident HF and AF. SVI improved risk prediction models beyond established risk factors only for HF, but not for all CVD or CHD.
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