Predictors of Long-Term Mortality in Older Patients Hospitalized for Acutely Decompensated Heart Failure: Clinical Relevance of Natriuretic Peptides

Background: Acute heart failure is a common cause of hospitalization among older patients. Optimized risk stratification might improve the outcome for this subgroup of patients. Natriuretic peptides have been used in the diagnosis of heart failure and in evaluating the prognosis of patients hospitalized for heart failure. However, their utility in the elderly is still controversial.

Objective: To evaluate long-term survival and prognostic factors for elderly patients hospitalized for acutely decompensated heart failure and evaluate the prognostic utility of NT-proBNP.

Design: Retrospective, multicenter cohort study.

Setting: Two Italian hospitals.

Participants: Two hundred seventy-nine patients, aged >75 years; hospitalized for decompensation of chronic, established heart failure.

Methods: Baseline clinical data were recorded at admission. The primary outcome was long-term mortality.

Results: In-hospital, 12-month and 5-year mortality were, respectively, 10%, 36%, and 77%. NT-proBNP, eGFR, hemoglobin, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation were independently associated with long-term prognosis and were entered into a multivariate model, with a C-index of 0.765 for the determination of high-risk patients. The C-index for NT-proBNP to predict mortality at 2 and 12 months was 0.740 and 0.756, respectively. The optimal cutoff point for predicting mortality at 2 and 12 months was 8,444 pg/mL (hazard ratio 5.33) and 8,275 pg/mL (hazard ratio 6.03), respectively.

Conclusion: Elderly patients hospitalized for acutely decompensated heart failure had a poor long-term outcome, especially in the subgroup with reduced ejection fraction (EF). In addition to EF and comorbidities, NT-pro-BNP remained independently prognostic among elderly patients hospitalized with heart failure.