Objectives: To compare the proportion of Beijing children who have ever had pneumonia (%Pneumonia) to those in other locations, and to estimate by how much national vaccine coverage with Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine (PCV) and Haemophilus Influenzae Type b (Hib) could reduce Beijing %Pneumonia.
Methods: %Pneumonia was obtained for each age group from 1 to 8 years inclusive from 5,876 responses to a cross-sectional questionnaire. Literature searches were conducted for world-wide reports of %Pneumonia. Previous vaccine trials conducted worldwide were used to estimate the pneumococcal (S. pneumoniae) and Hib (H. influenzae) burdens and %Pneumonia as well as the potential for PCV and Hib vaccines to reduce Beijing children's %Pneumonia.
Findings: The majority of pneumonia cases occurred by the age of three. The cumulative %Pneumonia for 3-8 year-old Beijing children, 26.9%, was only slightly higher than the 25.4% for the discrete 3 year-old age group, similar to trends for Tianjin (China) and Texas (USA). Beijing's %Pneumonia is disproportionally high relative to its Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, and markedly higher than %Pneumonia in the US and other high GNI per capita countries. Chinese diagnostic guidelines recommend chest X-ray confirmation while most other countries discourage it in favor of clinical diagnosis. Literature review shows that chest X-ray confirmation returns far fewer pneumonia diagnoses than clinical diagnosis. Accordingly, Beijing's %Pneumonia is likely higher than indicated by raw numbers. Vaccine trials suggest that national PCV and Hib vaccination could reduce Beijing's %Pneumonia from 26.9% to 19.7% and 24.9% respectively.
Conclusion: National PCV and Hib vaccination programs would substantially reduce Beijing children's pneumonia incidence.