A Novel Risk Score to Predict the Need for Nutrition Support After Cardiac Surgery

Background: In specific patients, early postoperative nutrition mitigates malnutrition-related morbidity and mortality. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a prediction score designed to stratify patients immediately after cardiac surgery according to risk for nutrition support (NS).

Methods: We identified adult cardiac surgery patients at our institution in 2012 requiring postoperative NS, enteral or parenteral. Using multivariable logistic regression modeling, we developed a Johns Hopkins Hospital Nutrition Support (JHH NS) score from relative odds ratios generated by variables that independently predicted the need for NS. The JHH NS score was then prospectively validated using all patients undergoing cardiac surgery in 2015.

Results: Among 1,056 patients in the derivation cohort, 87 (8%) required postoperative NS. Seven variables were identified on multivariable analysis as independent predictors of NS need and were used to create the JHH NS score. Scores ranged from 0 to 36. Each 1-point increase in the JHH NS score was associated with a 20% increase in the risk of requiring NS (odds ratio 1.20, p < 0.001). The c-statistic of the regression model for NS was 0.85. In all, 115 of 1,336 patients (8.6%) in the validation cohort required NS. Observed rates of NS in the validation group correlated positively with predicted rates (r = 0.89).

Conclusions: The JHH NS score reliably stratified patients at risk for the need for postoperative NS. This easily calculable and highly predictive screening tool may expedite timing of initiation of NS in patients at high risk for not being able to physically take in adequate nutrition.