Geriatric cancer trends in the Middle-East: Findings from Lebanese cancer projections until 2025

Objective: By 2020, 70% of all cancers will occur in patients aged 65years and older, causing an increase in related morbidity, mortality, and cost. This study projects cancer trends in the elderly population in Lebanon, a country experiencing accelerating aging trends. Findings will guide future policy decisions regarding geriatric oncology in Lebanon and the surrounding Arab world.

Materials and methods: Cancer incidence rates were derived for men and women 65years and above, divided into three age groups: 65-69years, 70-74years, and 75years and above. Raw data were obtained from the National Cancer Registry reports 2003-2010. The eight consecutive year data were used to project the incidence until 2025 using a logarithmic model. The Average Annual Percent Change in incidence rates was calculated to determine whether it would significantly increase, decrease, or remain stable over time.

Results: Incidence rates are projected to increase significantly in all age groups of both genders until 2025. In men, the fastest rise is expected in prostate cancer, followed by bladder, lung, colorectal, and NHL. In women, the rise will be fastest in breast, followed by colorectal, lung, NHL, and ovary. Projected rates increase faster in the "younger" age group 65-69 compared to the "oldest" ≥75, both in men and women. Only kidney and liver cancers continue to rise significantly after 75.

Conclusions: Cancer incidence is projected to increase in individuals between 65 and 74years of age. Lebanese and Middle Eastern physicians must implement adapted therapeutic strategies in the management of the increasing caseload among frail, elderly patients.