Scoring model to predict massive post-partum bleeding in pregnancies with placenta previa: A retrospective cohort study

Aim: We aimed to identify factors associated with massive post-partum bleeding in pregnancies with placenta previa and to establish a scoring model to predict post-partum severe bleeding.

Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed in 506 healthy singleton pregnancies with placenta previa from 2006 to 2016. Cases with intraoperative blood loss (≥2000 mL), packed red blood cells transfusion (≥4), uterine artery embolization, or hysterectomy were defined as massive bleeding. After performing multivariable analysis, using the adjusted odds ratios (aOR), we formulated a scoring model.

Results: Seventy-three women experienced massive post-partum bleeding (14.4%). After multivariable analysis, seven variables were associated with massive bleeding: maternal old age (≥35 years; aOR 1.79, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.00-3.20, P = 0.049), antepartum bleeding (aOR 4.76, 95%CI 2.01-11.02, P < 0.001), non-cephalic presentation (aOR 3.41, 95%CI 1.40-8.30, P = 0.007), complete placenta previa (aOR 1.93, 95%CI 1.05-3.54, P = 0.034), anterior placenta (aOR 2.74, 95%CI 1.54-4.89, P = 0.001), multiple lacunae (≥4; aOR 2.77, 95%CI 1.54-4.99, P = 0.001), and uteroplacental hypervascularity (aOR 4.51, 95%CI 2.30-8.83, P < 0.001). We formulated a scoring model including maternal old age (<35: 0, ≥35: 1), antepartum bleeding (no: 0, yes: 2), fetal non-cephalic presentation (no: 0, yes: 2), placenta previa type (incomplete: 0, complete: 1), placenta location (posterior: 0, anterior: 1), uteroplacental hypervascularity (no: 0, yes: 2), and multiple lacunae (no: 0, yes: 1) to predict post-partum massive bleeding. According to our scoring model, a score of 5/10 had a sensitivity of 81% and a specificity of 77% for predicting massive post-partum bleeding. The area under the receiver-operator curve was 0.856 (P < 0.001). The negative predictive value was 95.9%.

Conclusion: Our scoring model might provide useful information for prediction of massive post-partum bleeding in pregnancies with placenta previa.