Efficient Low-Order Approximation of First-Passage Time Distributions

Phys Rev Lett. 2017 Nov 24;119(21):210601. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.210601. Epub 2017 Nov 20.

Abstract

We consider the problem of computing first-passage time distributions for reaction processes modeled by master equations. We show that this generally intractable class of problems is equivalent to a sequential Bayesian inference problem for an auxiliary observation process. The solution can be approximated efficiently by solving a closed set of coupled ordinary differential equations (for the low-order moments of the process) whose size scales with the number of species. We apply it to an epidemic model and a trimerization process and show good agreement with stochastic simulations.