Uric Acid in the Follow-Up Determines 30% Decline in Estimated GFR Over 2 Years: a Propensity Score Analysis

Background/aims: Higher level of serum uric acid (SUA) predicts early entry to dialysis in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients. However, a short-term effect of SUA remains to be elucidated using a novel surrogate endpoint.

Methods: Japanese CKD stage 3 to 4 patients were retrospectively examined (n= 701). The follow-up level of SUA was estimated as time-averaged uric acid (TA-UA). A propensity score for 6.0, 6.5 or 7.0 mg/dL of TA-UA was respectively calculated using baseline 23 covariates. The time-to-event analysis was performed for 30% decline in estimated GFR over 2 years.

Results: Incidence rates over 2 years were 90 of 440 in men and 36 of 261 in women (p = 0.03). Despite the negative result of baseline SUA, stratified Cox regression on the quintiles of the estimated propensity score showed that higher TA-UA of the three thresholds were all significant (crude HR 2.10 to 2.44) even after adjusting for the confounders. Kaplan-Meier analysis after propensity score matching likewise showed worse survival in the patients with the higher TA-UA (HR 3.11 to 4.26).

Conclusion: Higher SUA increases likelihood of reaching a surrogate endpoint over 2 years. Early intervention for SUA less than 6.0 mg/dL is recommended for slowing CKD progression.