[Analysis on trend of cerebral infarction mortality from 1999 to 2015 in Tianjin of China]

Objective: To explore the trends and distribution of cerebral infarction between sexes, ages and urban-rural areas from 1999 to 2015 in Tianjin, China, and provide data for targeted prevention and control strategies of cerebral infarction in Tianjin. Methods: Cerebral infarction mortality data from January 1, 1999 to December 31, 2015 were obtained from Tianjin population based mortality surveillance system established by the Tianjin Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and population data of permanent residents were obtained from Tianjin Municipal Public Security Bureau. The trends change and affecting factors including gender, age, and geographic distribution on mortality following cerebral infarction were analyzed. Results: (1) Cerebral infarction mortality rate in Tianjin increased from 1999 to 2015 with the crude mortality rate of 57.06/100 000 to 105.22/100 000 (Z=59.65, P<0.01, annual percent change(APC)=3.39%) and decreased with the standardized mortality rate from 55.59/100 000 to 56.12/100 000 (Z=-5.47, P<0.01, APC=-0.35%). (2) The crude mortality rate (64.23/100 000 to 118.72/100 000) and standardized mortality rate (65.44/100 000 to 67.23/100 000) of male cerebral infarction was higher than that of female (crude: 49.73/100 000 to 91.64/1/100 000, standardized: 45.73/100 000 to 45.01/100 000) from 1999 to 2015. (3) With the increase of age, the mortality of cerebral infarction increased gradually from 1999 to 2015 (all Z>0.00,all P<0.01). (4) The mortality rate of cerebral infarction in urban areas increased with the crude mortality rate from 71.43/100 000 to 103.20/100 000 (Z=17.34, P<0.01, APC=1.30%) and decreased with the standardized mortality rate from 61.04/100 000 to 43.77/100 000 (Z=-32.49, P<0.01, APC=-3.06%) from 1999 to 2015. The mortality rate of cerebral infarction in rural areas increased with the crude mortality rate from 42.63/100 000 to 107.32/100 000 (Z=69.14, P<0.01, APC=5.95%) and with the standardized mortality rate from 48.34/100 000 to 77.09/100 000 (Z=36.88, P<0.01, APC=5.95%) from 1999 to 2015. Conclusions: Cerebral infarction crude mortality increased and standardized mortality decreased from 1999 to 2015 in Tianjin. Further efforts to reduce cerebral infarction mortality in Tianjin are needed, special attention should be focused on the elderly, male and rural residents.