Do Firms Underinvest in Long-Term Research? Evidence from Cancer Clinical Trials

Am Econ Rev. 2015 Jul;105(7):2044-85.

Abstract

We investigate whether private research investments are distorted away from long-term projects. Our theoretical model highlights two potential sources of this distortion: short-termism and the fixed patent term. Our empirical context is cancer research, where clinical trials--and hence, project durations--are shorter for late-stage cancer treatments relative to early-stage treatments or cancer prevention. Using newly constructed data, we document several sources of evidence that together show private research investments are distorted away from long-term projects. The value of life-years at stake appears large. We analyze three potential policy responses: surrogate (non-mortality) clinical-trial endpoints, targeted R&D subsidies, and patent design.

MeSH terms

  • Antineoplastic Agents / therapeutic use
  • Biomarkers
  • Chemoprevention
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / economics*
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / methods
  • Clinical Trials as Topic / statistics & numerical data
  • Financing, Government
  • Humans
  • Investments* / economics
  • Investments* / statistics & numerical data
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Neoplasms / drug therapy
  • Neoplasms / economics
  • Neoplasms / prevention & control
  • Patents as Topic
  • Private Sector
  • Research Design*
  • Survival Rate
  • Time Factors*
  • United States
  • Value of Life

Substances

  • Antineoplastic Agents
  • Biomarkers