Second-generation p-values: Improved rigor, reproducibility, & transparency in statistical analyses

PLoS One. 2018 Mar 22;13(3):e0188299. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0188299. eCollection 2018.

Abstract

Verifying that a statistically significant result is scientifically meaningful is not only good scientific practice, it is a natural way to control the Type I error rate. Here we introduce a novel extension of the p-value-a second-generation p-value (pδ)-that formally accounts for scientific relevance and leverages this natural Type I Error control. The approach relies on a pre-specified interval null hypothesis that represents the collection of effect sizes that are scientifically uninteresting or are practically null. The second-generation p-value is the proportion of data-supported hypotheses that are also null hypotheses. As such, second-generation p-values indicate when the data are compatible with null hypotheses (pδ = 1), or with alternative hypotheses (pδ = 0), or when the data are inconclusive (0 < pδ < 1). Moreover, second-generation p-values provide a proper scientific adjustment for multiple comparisons and reduce false discovery rates. This is an advance for environments rich in data, where traditional p-value adjustments are needlessly punitive. Second-generation p-values promote transparency, rigor and reproducibility of scientific results by a priori specifying which candidate hypotheses are practically meaningful and by providing a more reliable statistical summary of when the data are compatible with alternative or null hypotheses.

MeSH terms

  • Blood Pressure Determination / methods
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical*
  • False Positive Reactions
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Leukemia / genetics
  • Leukemia / metabolism
  • Lung Neoplasms / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Microarray Analysis
  • Models, Statistical
  • Reproducibility of Results*
  • Sex Factors