Aim: To study whether plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 independently predicts the risk of end-stage renal disease in Asian people with Type 2 diabetes.
Methods: In this prospective cohort study, 1700 Asian people with Type 2 diabetes were followed for a mean of 6.3 years in a regional hospital in Singapore. Incident end-stage renal disease was identified by linkage with a national renal registry. The association of baseline fibroblast growth factor 21 levels with risk of progression to end-stage renal disease was studied using survival analyses.
Results: Participants were aged 60 ± 10 years, with an average diabetes duration of 12 years. Their estimated GFR was 73 ± 28 ml/min/1.73 m2 and 62% had albuminuria at baseline. A total of 179 incident end-stage renal disease cases were identified. Plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 interacted with sex in its association with end-stage renal disease (Pinteraction = 0.003). A 1-sd increment in fibroblast growth factor 21 (natural log-transformed) was associated with a 1.32-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.66, P = 0.02) increased hazard for end-stage renal disease in women, after adjustment for traditional risk factors including estimated GFR and albuminuria. Taking death as a competing risk did not materially change the outcome [sub-distribution hazard ratio 1.35 (95% CI 1.11-1.66, P = 0.003)]. Fibroblast growth factor 21 did not predict end-stage renal disease risk in men after adjustment for baseline estimated GFR and albuminuria [hazard ratio 1.07 (95% CI 0.89-1.28, P = 0.49)].
Conclusions: Plasma fibroblast growth factor 21 level independently predicted risk of progression to end-stage renal disease in women with Type 2 diabetes. The pathophysiological relationships among FGF21, sex and renal progression warrant further study.
© 2018 Diabetes UK.